Australian General Insurance

Research evidence excerpt

Australian General Insurance

Macquarie Equity Research

07 July 2026

Insurance

AustraliaAustralian General Insurance

What to watch for at the FY26 results

Andrew HarryKey Points Buncombe, CFA Peng

• We expect SUN to announce an additional $200m buyback at its FY26 Insurance Australia Group (IAG AU)

result. We do not expect any additional capital returns for IAG. Recommendation Underperform

Price (CLOSE, 7 July '26) $8.12• Given portfolio exits and market-share losses, we anticipate SUN to Target Price

guide to FY27 GWP growth in the "low-single-digits" but close to flat for Valuation methodology $7.30DCF

IAG. WACC (Beta 1.1x, ERP 5.71%, RFR 4.73%, TGR 4.73%) 11.0%

• IAG currently trades at a ~10.3% discount to global peers with similar SuncorpRecommendationGroup Limited (SUN AU) Outperform

reinsurance structures; SUN is trading at a 5.2% premium to local peers. Price (CLOSE, 7 July '26) $18.73

Target Price $20.30

Valuation methodology Sum of parts

WACC (Beta 1.2x, ERP 5.42%, RFR 4.76%, TGR 4.76%) 11.3%

Thematics: Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2026

• #1) SUN to likely announce an additional $200m buyback at its FY26

result. We do not expect any excess capital returns for IAG until clarity is

provided on the proposed RACWA acquisition;

• #2) FY26 GWP growth to be weak for both IAG and SUN given FX;

however, given portfolio exits and market-share losses, we anticipate

SUN to guide to FY27 GWP growth in the "low-single-digits" but close to

flat for IAG. Within this, we expect competition for Home and Personal

Motor in Australia to continue being strong, while signs of difficult pricing

accelerates in Australian Commercial Lines;

• #3) IAG to change the way it gives margin guidance to "at least 15%, plus

100-200bps for profit shares";