AJG June Investor Day: Asymmetric Total Premium Change

Research evidence excerpt

AJG June Investor Day: Asymmetric Total Premium Change

Nonlife Insurance

Insurance Brokers - Market Weight

ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. (AJG) June 17, 2026

AJG June Investor Day: Asymmetric Total Premium Change Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $216.09

Brokerage organic revenue guidance unchanged for 2Q26E and 2026E. Risk Price Target:

management organic revenue upside for 2Q26E. Property pressures persist in $261

insurance and reinsurance. Prior: $262

% Upside:

20.8%

CFO Guidance Update: Organic Revenue Maintained View AJG Model

Organic revenue guide for the majority of brokerage business groups are unchanged View Comp Table

vs April guide. Company Information

A reinsurance organic revenue comeback for 2H26 remains a key anchor on the 52-Week Range $192 - $326 Market Cap. (MM) $55,514

delivery of AJG's 5.5% brokerage organic revenue for 2026E. The implied guidance Enterprise Value (MM) $68,126

remains than 2H26E would be better than 1H26E to land at a 10% reinsurance Shares Out. (MM) 256.9

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $296.32

organic revenue for 2026E (i.e. to overcompensate for an 7-8% growth rate for 1H26). SI% of Float 2.0%

This is despite AJG's June 1 commentary "Property cat renewals saw somewhat more Dividend Yield 1.3%

downward pricing pressure, and this accelerated further in the Florida property cat Price Performance

market." vs. January 1 renewals "in the teens". AJG reiterated expectations of higher YTD LTM

demand - across all businesses- more evident in 3Q than 4Q. AJG (16)% (32)%

S&P 500 8% 24%

Exhibit 1 - Organic Revenue - CFO Commentary WRIB (13)% (25)%

AJG Organic Revenue CFO Commentary 340

CFO Guide CFO Guide 320

Business Group April 30, 2026 June 17, 2026 300

1Q 2025 2Q 2025 3Q 2025 4Q 2025 FY 2025 1Q 2026 Q2 2026 FY 2026 Q2 2026 FY 2026 280