AJG: Notes from 2Q26 Investor Meeting

Research evidence excerpt

AJG: Notes from 2Q26 Investor Meeting

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Rowland Mayor, CFA (Analyst)

(440) 715-2650, rowland.mayor@rbccm.com

Riley Sandom (Associate)

(440) 715-2743, riley.sandom@rbccm.com

June 17, 2026 Outperform

NYSE: AJG; USD 215.90 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Price Target USD 260.00RESEARCH Notes from 2Q26 Investor Meeting Scenario Analysis*

Our view: Arthur J. Gallagher hosted its quarterly investor meeting, and Downside Current Price Upside

published updated guidance in its CFO Commentary document, which Scenario Price Target Scenario

can be found on the IR website. Guidance was largely unchanged, and 175.00 215.90 260.00 350.00

continues to imply some re-acceleration of organic growth in 2H26 (we 18% 22% 63%

believe due to lower property mix as opposed to re-firming of markets). *Implied Total Returns

Our estimates are modestly lowered on higher interest costs due to lower Key Statistics

cash balances (attributable to repurchases). We continue to believe the Shares O/S (MM): 256.9 Market Cap (MM): 55,474EQUITY Dividend: 2.80 Yield: 1.3% company is meaningfully undervalued at current levels and expect strong Avg. Daily Volume: 1,852,552

growth in EPS and EBITDAC through our 2027 forecast.

RBC Estimates

Key points: FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

Organic Growth Guidance Maintained: Importantly, the company's EPS, Ops Diluted 10.09 10.69 13.45 14.95

updated CFO Commentary re-affirmed Broker segment organic growth Prev. 13.69 15.08

P/E 21.4x 20.2x 16.1x 14.4x of 5% in 2Q26 and 5.5% FY26. The company suggested 3Q26 will see EBITDA, Adj 3,570.7 4,492.9 5,484.4 5,994.0

Broker organic growth a bit ahead of 4Q26. Management increased Risk Prev. 5,540.2 6,040.4

Management organic growth guidance to 11% in 2Q26 (previously 8%) and

8% in FY26 (previously 7%).