AJG Investor Day: Growth Reiterated, Property Rate Pressure Likely to Moderate

Research evidence excerpt

AJG Investor Day: Growth Reiterated, Property Rate Pressure Likely to Moderate

Insurance: Insurance Brokerage

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC QUICK TAKE: CONFERENCE TAKEAWAY

June 17, 2026

Price: $216.09 (06/17/2026) AJG Investor Day: Growth Reiterated,

Price Target: $388.00 Property Rate Pressure Likely to Moderate

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 55/100

Andrew Kligerman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

212 468 8440

AJG reiterated 6% total organic revenue growth for 2026. Pricing commentary suggests

andrew.kligerman@tdsecurities.com

property declines likely to moderate in 2027. AJG also highlighted AI as a productivity

Daniel Bergman lever, with early efficiency gains and a clear path to cost savings. M&A remains the priority,

617 946 3747 supported by $10B of capacity, while buybacks ($310M in 1Q26 and $170M from 1Q26 to date)

dan.bergman@tdsecurities.com

signal confidence.

Alfred Miller

212 468 8453 Organic Revenue Growth Outlook Reiterated

alfred.miller@tdsecurities.com

AJG reaffirmed FY2026 consolidated organic revenue growth of 6%–5.5% in Brokerage and 8%

Adittya Parthasarathy, CFA in Risk Management (RM).

212 468 8449

adittya.parthasarathy@tdsecurities.com AJG noted that 2Q26 Brokerage organic is tracking at 5% and expects a reacceleration in

2H26, driven by incremental demand at mid-year reinsurance renewals and steady new

Key Data

business growth. Management also said commission dynamics are a “bit asymmetrical”

Symbol NYSE: AJG

relative to pricing, with brokers giving up commissions as prices rise but recapturing some

Market Cap $55.5B

economics as markets soften.

Lastly, AJG raised its RM organic guide to 11% in 2Q26 (from prior 8%) and 8% for FY2026 (from

prior 7%).

Figure 1 - AJG 2Q26 Organic Revenue Growth Guidance

Line 2Q25 2Q26E TD 2Q26E