AJG – Organic and EBITDAC Margin Guide Steady from Prior Outlook, Higher Corporate Expenses

Research evidence excerpt

AJG – Organic and EBITDAC Margin Guide Steady from Prior Outlook, Higher Corporate Expenses

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 17, 2026

FINANCIALS: Insurance Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

AJG – Organic and EBITDAC Margin Guide Steady from Prior Mark Hughes, CFA

615-748-4422 Outlook, Higher Corporate Expenses

Mark.Hughes@truist.com

Maxwell Fritscher We are reducing our 2026 EPS estimate to $13.10 from $13.20 driven by higher corporate

404-439-9753 losses, while we are maintaining our 2027 forecast of $14.50 per share. Our price target of

Maxwell.Fritscher@truist.com $225 is based on a multiple of 13x our 2027 EBITDA estimate reflecting pressure across

the insurance broker space.

Stock Rating HOLD The CEO characterized the P&C market as “segmented”. Property conditions reportedly

Unchanged continue to ease as capacity is returning to the market. Specifically, property renewal

premium change is down 9% (down 7% in 1Q) while casualty is up 5% (up 4% in 1Q),

Price Target $225.00 including general liability up 1%, commercial auto up 4%, and umbrella up 8%. For their part,

Unchanged D&O, cyber, and other professional lines are up 2% (same as 1Q), workers’ compensation

flat (up 2% last quarter), and personal lines up 3% (up 4% in the first quarter). Renewal

premium changes ex-property are reportedly up 3% (up 4% in 1Q) with large property risks

driving most of the downward pressure. At the same time, audits and endorsements are still

TR to Target 5.4% in positive territory, indicating that business activity remains solid. The CFO stated that rates

Price (Jun. 17, 2026) $216.09 are only one input to the organic equation and that AJG tends to track more closely with