China Solar Sector: Policy expectations up, but still insufficient (Monthly - Jun 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

China Solar Sector: Policy expectations up, but still insufficient (Monthly - Jun 2026)

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Industry Date

China 11 June 2026

Hong Kong China Solar Sector

Industry Update

Energy

Alternative Energy

Policy expectations up, but still

insufficient (Monthly - Jun 2026)

Gary Zhou, CFA

Polysilicon: Higher efficiency standards; early attempt to revive consolidation Research Analyst

According to local media (Sina), the long-awaited new energy consumption +852-2203-5889

standards for polysilicon may be released in the near future. The China Silicon

Association estimates the new standards could eliminate 31.4% of industry

capacity, reducing effective annual capacity to ~2.4mn tonnes. However, given

weak solar demand (with polysilicon demand, we estimate, at 1.3mn tonnes in

2026E and 1.4mn tonnes in 2027E), any positive impact is likely to remain limited.

At the same time, local reports (Sina) indicate leading polysilicon producers are

discussing a revised capacity consolidation plan aimed at addressing prior

antitrust concerns raised by State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). In

our view, discussions are probably still at an early stage, with uncertainties around

how an executable plan could be reached.

Into June 2026, SMM estimates polysilicon output to increase 13% MoM,

outpacing downstream demand growth of 4-6% MoM across wafers, cells and

modules. We expect output to rise further into July-August, driven by potential

capacity restarts in hydro-rich regions (e.g., Sichuan and Yunnan) amid seasonally

lower power costs. This will likely reverse the modest inventory draw in May (~2%

decline) and adds pressure to already elevated inventory levels (>5 months of

production).