China Renewables & Utilities Sector: Weekly #89: New solar efficiency standards effective from 1 Jan 2027

Research evidence excerpt

China Renewables & Utilities Sector: Weekly #89: New solar efficiency standards effective from 1 Jan 2027

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Industry Date

Alternative Energy 2 July 2026

China Renewables &

Utilities Sector

Weekly #89: New solar efficiency standards

effective from 1 Jan 2027 Gary Zhou, CFA

Research Analyst

+852-2203-5889

DB weekly comment

According to the Shanghai Securities Journal on 1 July, China’s long-awaited energy

consumption and energy-efficiency standards covering polysilicon, wafers and modules

have been finalized and will take effect on 1 January 2027. The six-month transition period

leaves limited time for non-compliant manufacturers to upgrade their facilities. As we

highlighted earlier, we believe the new standards are more likely to serve as a catalyst for

downstream cell and module manufacturers, including Drinda (2638.HK) and LONGi

(601012.SS), while any positive impact on polysilicon producers is likely to remain limited.

Polysilicon: According to earlier comments from the China Silicon Industry Association,

around 31% of installed polysilicon capacity could be affected by the new energy-

consumption standards. Producers with energy consumption above 6.4kgce/kg will be

required to undertake rectification, while facilities that fail to do so within the prescribed

timeframe (i.e. 2H26) or remain above the 5.5kgce/kg access threshold after remediation,

may face mandatory shutdowns.

We believe the incremental benefit to polysilicon producers is likely to be limited.

According to SMM data, industry utilisation was only around 27% in 1H26, suggesting that

much of the non-compliant capacity may already be idled. Given the cash-loss position of

most rod-silicon producers, we see limited incentive or financial capacity for large-scale

upgrades.