DraftKings Inc. Quick Thoughts on Recent Prediction Volumes and Notes from This Morning’s CEO Interview

Research evidence excerpt

DraftKings Inc. Quick Thoughts on Recent Prediction Volumes and Notes from This Morning’s CEO Interview

Daniel Politzer, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-0110 10 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

daniel.politzer@jpmorgan.com

a catalyst for OSB/iGaming legalization.

• OSB handle: Moving forward, it is reasonable to expect “single-digit” growth, but net

revenue growth will be much higher (DKNG noted its 8% net win margin compares

with other regions’ ~12%). DKNG has seen some handle cannibalization from PMs,

but mostly professional bettors that were low/negative hold.

• Guidance: DKNG continues to view FY26 guidance as conservative, with its $700-

900m forecast and $200-300m prediction market investments implying a core $1b+

EBITDA. Longer term, DKNG remains confident in its 30% margin target, noting

that there’s potential for both marketing and fixed costs to decrease over time.

• May PM volume details. DKNG generated $1.3b of annualized PM customer volume

(comparable to OSB handle) in May, +24% m/m and $3.1b of total annualized PM

volume, +34% m/m (comparable to Kalshi’s reported $214b annualized volume in May),

implying market-making volume of $1.8b flowed-through DKNG’s platform. Our

understanding is that this market-making volume represents other market makers filling

order flows on DKNG’s platform, but DKNG should be able to fill order flow in-house

once it launches its own exchange.

• Some additional PM thoughts. While DKNG’s PM volumes are still small relative to

the broader category, we think DKNG’s $1.3b in consumer facing volume (+24% m/m)

provides a read into: (1) early traction, (2) better engagement visibility, and (3) medium-

term earnings optionality for DKNG’s PM business. Recall, DKNG expects gross