DraftKings Inc. Quick Thoughts on Recent Prediction Volumes and Notes from This Morning’s CEO Interview

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DraftKings Inc. Quick Thoughts on Recent Prediction Volumes and Notes from This Morning’s CEO Interview

Daniel Politzer, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-0110 10 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

daniel.politzer@jpmorgan.com

a catalyst for OSB/iGaming legalization.

• OSB handle: Moving forward, it is reasonable to expect “single-digit” growth, but net

revenue growth will be much higher (DKNG noted its 8% net win margin compares

with other regions’ ~12%). DKNG has seen some handle cannibalization from PMs,

but mostly professional bettors that were low/negative hold.

• Guidance: DKNG continues to view FY26 guidance as conservative, with its $700-

900m forecast and $200-300m prediction market investments implying a core $1b+

EBITDA. Longer term, DKNG remains confident in its 30% margin target, noting

that there’s potential for both marketing and fixed costs to decrease over time.

• May PM volume details. DKNG generated $1.3b of annualized PM customer volume

(comparable to OSB handle) in May, +24% m/m and $3.1b of total annualized PM

volume, +34% m/m (comparable to Kalshi’s reported $214b annualized volume in May),

implying market-making volume of $1.8b flowed-through DKNG’s platform. Our

understanding is that this market-making volume represents other market makers filling

order flows on DKNG’s platform, but DKNG should be able to fill order flow in-house

once it launches its own exchange.

• Some additional PM thoughts. While DKNG’s PM volumes are still small relative to

the broader category, we think DKNG’s $1.3b in consumer facing volume (+24% m/m)

provides a read into: (1) early traction, (2) better engagement visibility, and (3) medium-

term earnings optionality for DKNG’s PM business. Recall, DKNG expects gross