DraftKings: Updating DKNG Model and Thoughts Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

DraftKings: Updating DKNG Model and Thoughts Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold DraftKings 9 July 2026

Forecast Change

North America

United States

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 8 Jul 2026 (USD) 27.17

DKNG.OQ DKNG US NSM DKNG

Price target 28.00

Consumer

52-week range 48.98 - 20.72

Gaming & Lodging

Updating DKNG Model and Thoughts

Valuation & Risks Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

Steven Pizzella, CFA

Price Target to $28 on the Addition of Prediction Markets to Our Valuation; Research Analyst

Maintain Hold Rating +1-212-250-9817

In this note we have updated our model ahead of DKNG 2Q26 results and provided

some updated thoughts and analysis on important topics. Key items in the report Key changes

include; 1) we lower our 2Q26 OSB and iCasino forecasts, driven by our read on the TP 26.00 to 28.00 ↑ 7.7%

state level data, 2) look at key events driving handle for the remainder of the year,

EPS (USD) 0.18 to 0.16 ↓ -12.2%

3) provide our view of the drivers of current iCasino trends and outlook, 4) discuss

6,682.2 to

DKNG prediction market business, and introduce a scenario analysis valuation Revenue (USDm) ↑ 1.6%

6,789.2

framework, which we have added to our price target, and 5) provide our view on

Source: Deutsche Bank

DKNG 2027 guidance. Plus more.

Summary of Estimate Changes

For the 2Q26, we now forecast adjusted EBITDA of $140 mm, down from $246 mm

previously and below consensus of $198 mm. The revision is primarily driven by

lower OSB and iCasino revenue expectations plus increased marketing expenses.

We reduce OSB net revenue to $884 mm from $968 mm, reflecting a lower hold

assumption (10.5% vs. 11.0% previously) and higher promotional spend. We also

lower our iCasino net revenue forecast to $446 mm from $469 mm (consensus $469