Mar-26 Review: Big Miss; ME Conflict to Weigh on FY27 Performance

Research evidence excerpt

Mar-26 Review: Big Miss; ME Conflict to Weigh on FY27 Performance

ined supplies. We expect Exhibit 1 - New gas contracts to drive volume

prices to remain high over CY26-27. growth

Project Source Country (mmscmd)Volume Start Year Duration End Year

Portfolio Portfolio 3.6 2026 10 2036

Ruwais LNG UAE 1.8 2026 10 2036Gas Trading miss: Trading Ebitda at Rs 1bn was down 91% q/q and was 72% below JEFe. Das Island UAE 1.9 2026 10 2036

Trading volume at 101.9mmscmd was 5% above JEFe while per unit EBITDA was 74% . PortfolioTotal Qatar 2.710 2025 5 2030

below JEFe due to the Rs 6.7bn provision taken on receivables from Nagarjuna Fertilizers Source: Company reports, Jefferies

and Chemicals during the qtr. Mgmt guided for Rs 40-45bn PBT from the segment in FY27 Exhibit 2 - LNG infrastructures hit in the

depending on the duration of the ME conflict. We have pegged ourselves at the lower end of Middle East

the guidance. FacilitySouth Pars TypeGas field CountryIran Capacity194 mmtpa

Shah Gas Field Gas field UAE 10 mmtpa

Ras Laffan LNG field LNG terminal Qatar 77 mmtpaPetchem loss on higher feedstock cost: Volumes at 180kt declined 17% q/q and was in line vs . Habshan gas complex LNG processing UAE 47 mmtpa

Source: Industry reports, Jefferies

JEFe. Ebitda missed JEFe by 46% on higher feedstock cost. We cut segment Ebitda to reflect

high feedstock cost. Commissioning of 0.5mmtpa PDHPP plant/1.25mmtpa PTA plant is likely Exhibit 3 - GAIL 1-yr fwd PE band chart

in FY28/FY27. We see startup losses dragging FY27-28 earnings. Co is exploring options to 19 GAIL 1-yr fwd PE (x)

switch from natural gas to ethane feedstock. 16

LPG ahead: Volumes at 195kt were down 3% q/q and 3% below JEFe. LPG Ebitda at Rs 1.7bn 10

increased 156% q/q and was 26% above JEFe.