First Read: GAIL (India) "Gas supply challenged but recovering, commodity..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: GAIL (India) "Gas supply challenged but recovering, commodity..."

translates to an improved earnings trajectory.

03/27E 16.21 16.83 4 15.32

Gas trading: Reported EBIT loss of Rs1.5bn was negatively impacted from 03/28E 17.78 17.07 -4 16.70

provisioning (Rs6.8bn) as well as FX loss. Management guided for a minimum PBT Rwibhu Aon

of Rs40bn in FY27, after considering the Middle East conflict. Analyst

rwibhu.aon@ubs.com

Petchem: EBIT loss narrowed QoQ despite higher feedstock gas cost (Henry Hub

+91-22-6155 6078

linked) due to lower depreciation (increase in useful life). Management flagged

recent restart of petchem plant (at about 50% utilization) after March shutdown, Yash Bohra

as gas sourcing situation as well as polyethylene (PE) realizations have improved. Associate Analyst

yash.bohra@ubs.com

LPG/ LHC production: Allocation of domestic gas (including new well gas) has +91-22-6155 6235

been increased to 1.9mmscmd, which would reverse declining production.

One offs: Management highlighted Rs2.2/3.7bn total one off gains for Q4/FY26,

as impact of lower depreciation was partially offset by provisioning.

Capex: Management guided for capex increase from Rs96bn in FY26 to Rs116bn

in FY27, with allocation towards net zero/ renewables increasing to about Rs20bn.

Valuation: maintain Buy with PT raised to Rs205

We roll forward to FY28E, and calculate PT using an unchanged 12.0x consolidated PE.

We have aligned FY26 earnings to actuals.

Highlights (Rsm) 03/23 03/24 03/25 03/26E 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E

Revenues 1,456,683 1,332,285 1,419,017 1,415,977 1,557,419 1,694,660 1,774,869 1,838,272

EBIT (UBS) 47,846 106,243 116,232 76,751 127,169 129,599 147,107 158,900

Net earnings (UBS) 56,160 98,992 100,098 75,825 110,635 112,209 124,639 132,883