GAIL (India): Misses

Research evidence excerpt

GAIL (India): Misses

Update

May 22, 2026 01:22 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MGAIL (India) | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

Misses Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ +65 6834-6719

Pranitha Shetty

Research Associate

Reaction to earnings Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

Unchanged Meaningful shortfall Meaningful revision lower Hinal Choudhary

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Research Associate

consensus EPS Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

GAIL (India) (GAIL.NS, GAIL IS)

India Oil & Gas | India

Key Takeaways

Stock Rating Equal-weight

GAIL earnings missed estimates as petrochemical and gas volumes were Industry View In-Line

Price target Rs150.00

impacted a lot more than expected by the Middle East conflict. Up/downside to price target (%) (4)

Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) Rs155.90

Core PAT of Rs14.4bn missed both Street and MS expectations due to restricted Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 6,575

access to gas supply and trading losses. Net debt at ~US$2bn increased 24% YoY. Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$10,587

EV, curr (mn) US$10,634

Transmission volumes will remain challenged in 2026 as LNG prices rise in 2H26, Avg daily trading value (mn) US$20

while losses in petrochemicals sustain due to limited gas availability. Fiscal Year Ending 03/25 03/26e 03/27e 03/28e

EPS (Rs)** 18.08 16.27 16.56 17.37

Beyond 2026, we do see GAIL as a key beneficiary of increased global natural gas EPS (Rs)§ 15.56 11.82 13.63 14.88

availability. However, we prefer fuel retailers and pure chemicals. Revenue, net (Rs bn) 1,419.0 1,429.8 1,409.9 1,419.5

EBITDA (Rs bn) 188.0 175.3 180.9 189.9