India Oil & Gas 1QFY27preview: Expect a weak sector performance

Research evidence excerpt

India Oil & Gas 1QFY27preview: Expect a weak sector performance

10 July 2026

India Oil & Gas EquitiesOil & Gas

1QFY27preview: Expect a weak sector performance India

◆ We see weak sector earnings in 1QFY27 reflecting a challenging

macro environment and high volatility in the energy fundamentals PuneetSenior Analyst,Gulati*, CFAIndia Energy, Property & Infra

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

◆ Conflict situation remains uncertain as recent flare ups impact puneetgulati@hsbc.co.in

+91 82 9189 7591

transit at Hormuz; however, Brent prices remain at ~USD75-80/b Saurabh Jain*

Analyst, India Materials and Energy

◆ Maintain Buy on GAIL; Hold on Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum, HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

Bharat Petroleum and PLNG saurabh2jain@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6164 0691

Evan Li*

1QFY27e – A rough start followed by ‘hopefully’ improving fundamentals. The Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

sector witnessed high volatility attributed to the Middle East conflict that began March evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

2026, hitting the peak of the crisis in early April followed by a gradual normalisation. +852 2996 6619

Not only did the prices go sky high, volumes were also impacted; the subsequent fall in

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

commodity price (end of June) drove inventory losses, too. Brent prices tapered from not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.

highs of ~USD115/b in April and exited the quarter at ~USD75/b. Refining product cracks

(diesel/Jet Kero) also moderated from ~USD100/b+ to ~USD40/b but still higher than

normalised ~USD15/b. The government of India extended relief measures to the Oil