Traffic Still Waiting For The Green Light...

Research evidence excerpt

Traffic Still Waiting For The Green Light...

Broadlines & Hardlines

Dollar Stores - Market Overweight

DOLLAR TREE (DLTR) May 20, 2026

Traffic Still Waiting For The Green Light... Rating:

Peer Perform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $90.50

We expect 1Q SSS slightly ahead of the Street, but remain cautious given negative Price Target:

traffic trends that are likely to persist through 3Q. Since ticket compares are NA

getting tougher, traffic needs to turn positive for the multiple to re-rate in our view. View DLTR Model

View Comp Table

Dollar Tree has carved out its niche by offering a unique assortment coupled with Company Information

a store that's easy to shop, and you don't have to worry about overspending. With 52-Week Range $85 - $142

Market Cap. (MM) $17,644

the evolution to multi-price, Dollar Tree is effectively shrinking its moat to peers. Enterprise Value (MM) $25,031

While the Dollarama playbook is often cited by Dollar Tree, we think Five Below Shares Out. (MM) 194.7

is the retailer that could actually implement it (and is currently in the early innings Avg. Value Traded (MM) $268.99 SI% of Float 6.0%

of doing so).

Price Performance

(=/+) 1Q SSS Moves to +3.9% and Slightly Ahead of the Street. We are raising our YTD LTM

SSS estimates to +3.9% vs consensus +3.5% and roughly in-line with the buy-side DLTR 27% 37%

bogey. Given DLTR's mix is more discretionary than DG's, we see a greater risk of S&P 500 12% 17%

trade-out here as we look past 1Q. 150

(=/-) Traffic Trends Remain Soft... Modeling -1.5% in 1Q and -2.0% in 2Q. We 130

expect soft traffic and are modeling -150bps in traffic comps for 1Q, and -70bps for 120

the year, with trends not turning positive until 4Q. Traffic data worsened through 1Q, 110