Dollar Tree, Inc. Boss’ Eye: $1 Price Point Re-Introduction = 2H Reinvestment Opportunity

Research evidence excerpt

Dollar Tree, Inc. Boss’ Eye: $1 Price Point Re-Introduction = 2H Reinvestment Opportunity

Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-2630 26 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Dollar Tree, Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: $160.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate DLTR Overweight. Multi-year, we see DLTR returning to a double-digit EPS

“compounder” with top- and bottom-line drivers in place at the core DT banner (MPP 3.0

format store expansion) and idiosyncratic bottom-line drivers through tariff mitigation

strategies, MPP expansion, 1x cost recapture, and corporate expense leverage following the

sale of the FDO business (with capital allocation representing an incremental catalyst).

Valuation

We maintain our Dec ’26 price target of $160 based on 20x our FY27E EPS (= 1.5x PEG,

or defensive peer average PEG, on DLTR’s 12-15% stated algorithm).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

A decline in the economic climate, particularly the employment picture, could negatively

affect consumer spending and the dollar store industry. Furthermore, a change in the

competitive landscape as related to promotional activity or the ability to pass along price

increases from other discount retailers and large-box competitors could negatively or

positively impact same-store-sales growth and overall profitability. Rising energy prices,

fuel in particular, could impact both the operational side of the dollar store industry and its

targeted customers’ spending behavior. A greater than expected increase in energy prices

could impact costs of products and materially affect transportation costs and could

negatively impact the overall discretionary spend of the targeted low- to middle-income

customer.