DLTR - With the Mantle Ridge Overhang Removed, Focus Can Primarily Return to Traffic and UPT Progress—We Stay BUY-Rated With A $135 PT

Research evidence excerpt

DLTR - With the Mantle Ridge Overhang Removed, Focus Can Primarily Return to Traffic and UPT Progress—We Stay BUY-Rated With A $135 PT

June 25, 2026

John Heinbockel john.heinbockel@guggenheimpartners.com DLTR - With the Mantle Ridge Overhang Removed,

212 381 4135 Focus Can Primarily Return to Traffic and UPT

Steven Forbes, CFA, CPA

steven.forbes@guggenheimpartners.com Progress—We Stay BUY-Rated With A $135 PT

212 381 4188

Julio Marquez Key Message: The sizable Mantle Ridge block trade, while placing technical, near-term julio.marquez@guggenheimpartners.com pressure on the shares, largely eliminates an overhang that had concerned investors 212 823 6605

and returns the debate to the MPP strategy, which will turn on medium-term traffic and

Jacob Nivasch UPT progress. We remain a believer in the approach, on the view that it makes the brand

jacob.nivasch@guggenheimpartners.com more relevant to more households, especially more attractive higher-income ones, but

212 338 8837 we recognize that the comp composition must broaden out beyond AUR. With traffic likely

Max Horowitz having declined 70-80 basis points, excluding the Easter calendar shift in the 1Q and

max.horowitz@guggenheimpartners.com outsized high-single digit, tariff-related AUR gains naturally pressuring UPT we expect

212 518 9974 progress during the balance of the year. As a result, we remain BUY-Rated with the

shares trading at a seemingly modest 9.4x our 2026E EBITDA—see Exhibit 1—and are

retaining our $135 price target or ~16% upside.

The Overhang Is Gone, The $500 Million Buyback Is Timely. The just-announced blockDLTR BUY

Dollar Tree, Inc. trade will largely eliminate Mantle Ridge’s position, and with it the overhang that has