Dollar Tree Inc: Raising Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Dollar Tree Inc: Raising Estimates

Equity Research

U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food Retail

29 May 2026

Dollar Tree Inc

Raising Estimates

DLTR’s Q1 sales were in line with our initial expectations but

well ahead of our revised expectations, particularly the

transactions growth, while margins and share repurchases DLTR OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

came in much better. We move our estimates back up. U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & NEUTRAL Food Retail

Unchanged

Price Target USD 140.00

raised 7% from USD 131.00

Price (28-May-26) USD 113.00

THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Potential Upside/Downside +23.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

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votes in this year’s Extel All-America Research Market Cap (USD mn) 21715

Shares Outstanding (mn) 192.17

Survey Free Float (%) 93.44

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.8

Dividend Yield (%) N/A

Vote Now View Analysts Return on Equity TTM (%) 33.17

Current BVPS (USD) 18.92

Source: Bloomberg

Price Performance Exchange-Nasdaq

We raise our estimates following Q1 results (we had lowered earlier in the week, but our 52 Week range USD 142.40-84.71

estimates now move up above our prior estimates as well). Two surprises for us: First, traffic was

slightly better than Q4 on a 1-year basis and much better on a 2-year basis, navigating

headwinds like an earlier Easter, various weather events, and other consumer pressures better

than we expected. It's possible tax refunds were a benefit, but the headwinds seemed greater,

particularly based on some of our analysis on the low income consumer in this channel in Q1.

Second, gross margin: We believe initial guidance had probably implied 1H above consensus/2H

below consensus to start, but shrink is coming in better than expected (which could continue). Source: IDC