Major Iron Ore Miners Spot Analysis: Vale’s Discount and Yields Continue to Stand Apart

Research evidence excerpt

Major Iron Ore Miners Spot Analysis: Vale’s Discount and Yields Continue to Stand Apart

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

21 May 2026

Major Iron Ore Miners

Spot Analysis: Vale’s Discount and Yields Continue to

Stand Apart

This month's spot analysis is shaped by China's stricter steel capacity controls, the LatAm Basic Materials

ACongoing ramp-up of Simandou supply out of Guinea, and persistent Strait of Rodolfo Angele, CFA

Hormuz disruptions elevating freight and energy costs across the seaborne market. (55-11) 4950-3888

Against this backdrop, iron ore prices have come under modest pressure, with spot rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

prices holding at approximately $108/t. Analyzing the global miners at current spot Tathiane Martins Candini

prices and exchange rates, we highlight the following key takeaways: (a) RIO (55-11) 4950-4116

offers the greatest upside to EBITDA relative to consensus and JPMe. At spot tathiane.m.candini@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

prices, Rio Tinto benefits the most compared to both consensus and JPM estimates,

with potential upside of 11% vs. consensus and 10% vs. JPMe should iron ore

prices hold at current levels. (b) Vale continues to stand out as the most

VALE3.SA, VALE3 BZ

undervalued name across peers. On a multiple basis (EV/EBITDA), Vale

remains the cheapest option among global miners, trading at 4.9x in our base case Overweight

versus 6.9x for peers, and at 4.9x at spot prices versus 6.4x for peers. (c) Vale still Price (21 May 26): R$82.63

offers the highest FCF and dividend yields in both spot and base case

scenarios. At current spot prices, Vale is expected to deliver FCF and dividend VALE, VALE US

yields of 7.0% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to peer averages of 4.4% and Overweight

4.1%.