VALE: Voisey's Bay site visit: Operational momentum building

Research evidence excerpt

VALE: Voisey's Bay site visit: Operational momentum building

Bay provides further optionality beyond the base

case. VBM is self-funding a copper growth pipeline toward 700ktpa and is Free Cash Flow: FCF formula includes Brumadinho and Samarco payments

on track to reach net cash. With EBITDA contribution increasing to ~30% AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorUSD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

of the group in 2030e, we see potential for a meaningful re-rating as

operational delivery compounds and the market begins to price in VBM.

Voisey's Bay & Long Harbour: operational momentum building

Voisey's Bay and Long Harbour contributes 20% and 5% of 2026e nickel

and copper production respectively, and generated $66m of EBITDA in Q1

26 (6% of VBM, 2% of group). Operational turnaround is starting to bear

fruit and the underground transition is largely complete with throughput

at nameplate. Increasing own-source feed and debottlenecking at Long

Harbour has also improved reliability (+63 operating days in 2025). The

next phase of growth targets a +35% increase in mill capacity to 3.8mtpa

(from 2.8mtpa) by 2030, with a PFS underway and FID expected 2028. The

expansion displaces third-party feed with own-source material reducing

unit costs and should increase copper and cobalt production by 5ktpa

and 1ktpa respectively. No capex estimate provided but the brownfield

nature of the project suggests a modest capital requirement relative to the

production and margin uplift on offer.

Reiterate Sector Perform, PT $15/ADR

We expect shares to re-rate as VBM focuses on consistent operational

delivery, advances its project pipeline and becomes a more significant

contribution to earnings. At current levels, we see risk/reward more

balanced.