European Metals & Mining: Updating forecasts for recent results

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining: Updating forecasts for recent results

Equity Research

22 July 2026

European Metals & Mining

Updating forecasts for recent

results

We update models for VALE, NHY, FRES, HOC and VAL post European Metals & Mining

recent results/production releases. Our PT for HOC reduces NEUTRAL Unchanged

by 5%, while other PTs remain unchanged. European Metals & Mining

Amos Fletcher, CFA

Vale: We update forecasts for today's better-than-expected Q2 production report (details here). +44 (0)20 7773 2225

amos.fletcher@barclays.comAs a result, our Q2 EBITDA forecast lifts by 7% to $4.1bn vs. BBG consensus $3.8bn. Our FY26

Barclays, UK

EBITDA lifts 2% to $15.4bn vs. BBG consensus $16.4bn. We make no changes to our FY27/28

forecasts while our price target ($16.75) likewise remains unchanged. Q2 financials will be Ian Rossouw, CFA

released after market close on 30 July. +44 (0)20 3555 2620

ian.rossouw@barclays.com

Fresnillo: FRES delivered strong Q2 production, 5% ahead of consensus in silver equivalent Barclays, UK

terms driven by higher gold volumes at Herradura. Production guidance was unchanged for Meet Mehta, CFA

FY26/27/28 but is trending well YTD relative to guidance for FY26, with H1 annualising 6% above +91 (0)22 6175 1943

the midpoint of the range in silver equivalent terms (gold +12% above midpoint, silver in line). meet.mehta@barclays.com

However, the company kept FY gold guidance unchanged because of two weeks' planned Barclays, UK

maintenance to the ball mill shell at Herradura DLP plant in Q4. We lift our FY26 silver equivalent

production forecast by 3% to reflect strong H1 performance. Our revised forecasts now sit

towards the upper end of guidance for gold production (542koz vs. 500-550koz guidance) and

mid-point for silver (43.6moz vs.