Vale: Q2 implied revenue a 6% beat vs consensus, guidance unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Vale: Q2 implied revenue a 6% beat vs consensus, guidance unchanged

Equity Research

European Metals & Mining

22 July 2026

Vale

Q2 implied revenue a 6% beat vs

consensus, guidance unchanged

Good Q2 operational performance. Sales volumes x realised VALE EQUAL WEIGHT

prices imply Q2 revenue is a +2% beat vs BarcE and +6% vs. European Metals & Mining NEUTRAL

consensus ahead of results on 31 July. FY production Price Target USD 16.75

Price (21-Jul-26) USD 14.25

guidance unchanged. Potential Upside/Downside +17.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Vale’s Q2 iron ore production was 2% below our estimate and in line with BBG consensus.

Q2 production came in at 84.3mt, +1% YoY (+21% QoQ), reflecting higher YoY production from European Metals & Mining

Capanema, S11D and Vargem Grande. FY26 guidance was unchanged at 335-345mt. YTD Amos Fletcher, CFA

production tracking is 9% below, with the guidance midpoint reflecting normal seasonality. IO +44 (0)20 7773 2225

shipments for Q2 were in-line with our estimate and 4% above consensus (+3% YoY) reflecting amos.fletcher@barclays.com

Barclays, UKhigher production and 0.6mt inventory release. Portfolio sales grade decreased slightly at 61.4%

vs. 61.7% Fe in Q1 and 61.7% in Q4, reflecting the 'mid-grade' product strategy. Despite that Ian Rossouw, CFA

realised iron ore price (ex-ROM) was 1% above our estimate and in-line with consensus. Pellet +44 (0)20 3555 2620

production was +1% vs BarcE (-3% vs consensus) and YTD pellet production is tracking 2% ian.rossouw@barclays.com

Barclays, UKbelow guidance midpoint. Pellet shipments were 8% above our estimates (7% above

consensus) reflecting inventory reductions. Overall, iron ore division revenue (sales volumes x

realised price) was +1% vs our estimate & +4% consensus for Q2.

FIGURE 1.