Olin Caustic Comments

Research evidence excerpt

Olin Caustic Comments

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 May 2026

Olin Neutral

OLN, OLN US

Caustic Comments Price (14 May 26):$27.74

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$26.00

Prior (Dec-26):$20.00

Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

Agricultural, and Paper & Packaging

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

(1-212) 622-6644

jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

Business conditions have improved for Olin since the outset of the Iran conflict

Katie Zhang

because of higher pricing in caustic soda and in ethylene dichloride (EDC). Olin (1-212) 622-3262

indicated that it expected to generate EBITDA of $160-$200m in 2Q:26 following katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

$86m earned in 1Q:26 and $68m of EBITDA in 4Q:25. Olin’s $652m of EBITDA Silke Kueck

generated in 2025 was its lowest total for the past 10 years exclusive of the $636m (1-212) 622-6503

in EBITDA Olin earned in the recessionary year of 2020. The global caustic soda silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

market is now tighter. PVC is made from ethylene and chlorine as is ethylene Lydia Huang

dichloride, a PVC raw material. Ethylene shortages for PVC, which stem from high (1-212) 622-0086

raw material costs and lack of adequate naphtha supply, have led to reduced lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

chlorine production and reduced caustic soda co-product output. Should the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

conflict in the Middle East extend itself, product shortages can increase and there

can be room for additional shortages and caustic price increases. Conversely, a Key Changes (FYE Dec)

quick resolution to the Middle East conflict would lower ethylene values, increase Prev Cur Δ

ethylene supply, increase PVC and caustic soda production, and most likely lead Adj. EPS - 26E ($) (1.90) (0.75) 60.3%

to lower caustic prices and lower EBITDA for Olin. Underlying demand Adj.