Chemicals: Meeting with Olin/Huntsman: Confidence in Synergies Growing

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals: Meeting with Olin/Huntsman: Confidence in Synergies Growing

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Chemicals Chemicals 16 July 2026

Meeting with Olin/Huntsman: Confidence in

David Begleiter Synergies Growing

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473

OlinHuntsman valuation attractive at 5.4x ’27E EBITDA post synergies

Our meetings with the future CEO and CFO of OlinHuntsman (the current CEO of Emily Fusco

Olin and current CFO of Huntsman, respectively) increased our confidence that Research Associate

+1-212-250-5162 the $400MM-plus of targeted cost synergies and integration benefits are not only

achievable but likely beatable. This is because the raw material and vertical

integrations benefits are based on ‘25 volumes – a trough year for the chemical

industry. At higher volumes, these benefits would be larger. As such, if / when

there is a return to mid-cycle conditions, the raw material and vertical integration

benefits would be higher, and potentially much higher.

When Olin and Huntsman announced their all-stock merger of equals in mid-

June, we thought the most noteworthy aspect of the merger were the $400MM-

plus of cost synergies and integration benefits. We estimate the present value of

the capitalized cost synergies and integration benefits total $2.3B, or 37% of the

combined pre-merger market cap of the two companies. However, with Olin and

Huntsman shares down 14% and 25%, respectively, since the merger

announcement, the present value of the capitalized synergies now total 46% of

the combined market cap. And with potential upside to these synergies from

normalized / mid-cycle volumes, the present value of the capitalized synergies

could be well above 50% today’s combined market cap - as high a level as we have