Olin Corp: Downgrading shares on thesis drift and more muted valuation

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Olin Corp: Downgrading shares on thesis drift and more muted valuation

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Olin Corp

Downgrading shares on thesis drift and

more muted valuation

Rating Change: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 21.00 USD | Price: 20.82 USD

Going to Underperform and taking a wait and see 30 June 2026

We are downgrading Olin to Underperform from Buy on a more muted growth trajectory Equity

and Huntsman (HUN) merger concerns. We favored Olin given strong cash flow

credentials, a benign industry supply growth, and the potential for volume recovery as

Key Changesthe industrial economy gains traction. While these still hold, the earnings inflection is

more muted than hoped and the SOH closure never resonated in sustained price (US$) Previous Current

inflation. More importantly, the pending merger with HUN creates thesis drift. HUN is Inv. Opinion C-1-7 C-3-7

more tied to global housing/construction (we are less optimistic), faces competitive Inv. Rating BUY UNDERPERFORM

supply pressures, and doesn’t have structural cost advantages. We appreciate the Price Obj. 32.00 21.00

synergy opportunity, but we are still ~9 months from merger close, and even longer from 2026E Rev (m) 7,090.9 7,134.9

realizations. Further, we often find that cost cuts in commodity chemicals get lost to 2027E Rev (m) 7,532.0 7,493.1

competitive pressures, and thus we are hesitant to make this a material part of our 2028E Rev (m) 8,085.8 8,007.1

investment thesis at this time. 2026E EPS 0.12 -0.09

HUN and OLN merger a sign of stagnant cycle dynamics 2027E EPS 1.26 0.88

As per our initial takeaway report (merger sparked by soft cycle), OLN/HUN have seen 2028E EPS 3.00 2.36

brutal trough dynamics, and their more focused portfolios only work when the macro is

driving core growth.