Railcar & Petrochemical Update: US Chemical Shipments Flat. June PE Contract Pricing Forecasted Down

Research evidence excerpt

Railcar & Petrochemical Update: US Chemical Shipments Flat. June PE Contract Pricing Forecasted Down

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Chemicals Railcar & 23 June 2026

Petrochemical

Update

US Chemical Shipments Flat. June PE

David Begleiter Contract Pricing Forecasted Down

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473

Railcar loadings 4-week moving average down 0.3%; Weekly loadings down

0.4%. Loadings up 2.9% YTD Emily Fusco

The 4-week moving average of US chemical railcar loadings was down 0.3% in Research Associate

+1-212-250-5162 Week #23 (ended 6/13/26), versus up 1.0% in the prior week. The more volatile

weekly loadings measure was down 0.4% YoY (vs. down 0.8% the prior week) and

up 1.3% sequentially (vs. down 2.4% in the prior week).

Spot ethylene down 2 c/lb to 22 c/lb. Margins down 1 c/lb to 10 c/lb

US spot ethylene prices for June delivery were down 1.6 c/lb last week to 22.19

c/lb (midpoint of the weekly range of 20.625-23.75 c/lb). This is versus spot prices

of 17.6 c/lb prior to the start of the US-Iran military conflict and versus the May

contract price of 35.50 c/lb. Deals for July spot ethylene were in the range of

21.00-22.70 last week. US average spot ethylene margins decreased 1.16 c/lb

last week to 9.69 c/lb. With strong demand and stable production costs, US spot

ethylene margins are expected to remain healthy through the end of the year.

ICIS forecast June US PE contract prices down 15 c/lb

Despite producer announcements for US polyethylene contract price increases

of 10-20 c/lb for June, amongst the major chemical consultancies, CMA forecasts

a flat settlement in June while ICIS/CDI forecasts a decline of 15 c/lb, down from

the prior forecast of a 5 c/lb decline (and versus 40 c/lb of increases in March and

April; May was flat).