Hapag-Lloyd: Issues for debate post 1Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Hapag-Lloyd: Issues for debate post 1Q26

Equity Research

European Transportation

14 May 2026

Hapag-Lloyd

Issues for debate post 1Q26

Key issues include: Middle East disruption and Red Sea

reopening, fuel surcharge, rate outlook, 2Q/FY26 volumes,

tariffs reversal, inventory levels, demand/supply dynamics, HLAG.DE/HLAG GY UNDERWEIGHT

European Transportation NEUTRAL

impact of Gemini on cost and pricing, capacity discipline vs. Price Target EUR 83.00

replenishing fleet. Price (12-May-26) EUR 116.80

Potential Upside/Downside -28.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

What's the debate? In this report, we summarise key issues for investors to discuss with Hapag-

Lloyd management following the company's 1Q26 results on May 13th, 2026.

Top of the agenda are FY26 guidance, peak season visibility, 2Q trading and rates, fuel Marco Limite

pass-through and Red Sea reopening timing. Hapag-Lloyd kept FY26 guidance unchanged +39 (0)2 6372 2582

following a soft 1Q, with management sounding constructive on 2Q demand and rates marco.limite@barclays.com

BBI, Milanincreasing on seasonality, while emergency fuel surcharges/contract clauses are expected to

recover higher bunker costs. Red Sea reopening does not look imminent, with escort capacity Helene Iselin

still limited and any return likely gradual, supporting a still-tight effective capacity backdrop. +44 (0)20 7773 7391

Red Sea reopening seems unlikely until Middle East tensions normalise. Capacity management helene.iselin@barclays.com

Barclays, UKremains a key debate, with dominant-leg growth expected to outpace headline demand and

potential offsets from slow steaming and higher scrapping. Near-term earnings Emilie Fung

visibility remains dominated by geopolitics and fuel pass-through dynamics post 1Q. +44 (0)20 3555 2335