First Read: Hapag-Lloyd "Guidance lifted on strong demand and higher spot rates"

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Hapag-Lloyd "Guidance lifted on strong demand and higher spot rates"

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -19.9%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return -19.9%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return -27.5%

Company Description

Hapag-Lloyd is the world's fifth-largest ocean carrier, headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

The group is a member of THE Alliance and operates a fleet of more than 250 vessels with a

combined capacity of 1.9m TEU. Recently the group has been investing in container

terminals, notably in India and Latin America, to improve access to locations it views as key.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our estimates which play an important role in our valuation and stock price targets are

subject to a high degree of error. The forecast error is primarily driven by revenue volatility, a

function of unpredictable ordering of capacity or unforeseen demand factors impacting

freight rates, combined with significant operating leverage. Ocean container volumes can be

meaningfully impacted by economic recessions. Cyber-attacks have historically targeted

ocean carriers with consequences in terms of increased cost and headwinds to the capacity of

serve clients. Hapag Lloyd has exposure to developing economies via its Terminal operations

potentially leaving its operations exposed to political instability. Increased emphasis globally

on emissions reductions could lead to incremental costs for the company to comply with

regulation which may not be fully passed through to customers. Increases in ocean carriers'

profitability could trigger increased scrutiny and intervention from regulators. We value the

company using a EV/IC methodology.

A.P. Moller-Maersk: Our estimates which play an important role in our valuation and stock