Global Freight Monitor Container on a rise; VLCC plunged

Research evidence excerpt

Global Freight Monitor Container on a rise; VLCC plunged

3 July 2026

Equities

Transport Global Freight Monitor

Container on a rise; VLCC plunged Global

◆ SCFI +2.7% w-o-w on strong demand and constrained

Parash Jain*

capacity. Drewry sees rates to continue rising in coming weeks. Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ VLCC retreated sharply as geopolitical risk premium unwinds. parashjain@hsbc.com.hk +852 2996 6717

Air freight rate fell on lower jet fuel costs. Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

◆ Buy: APMM, CSH-H/A, Evergreen, PBS, and CX; Hold: SITC, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

OOIL, and DHL; Reduce: HLAG deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4292

Bruce Chu*, CFA

The SCFI rose 2.7% w-o-w to 3,327, its highest since Aug-24, with spot rates up 9-12% Analyst, Asia Transport

to the US and +2.3% to Europe, leaving the index 150% above pre-conflict levels. On The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

bruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk

strong demand and constrained supply, Linerlytica noted the demand‑supply gap +852 2996 6621

widened to its highest level since Dec 2024 and port congestion was also at the highest Cathy Huang*, CFA

level since 2022. Meanwhile, with eight blank sailings scheduled on the transpacific next Associate, Asia Transport

week, Drewry expects rates to continue rising in the weeks ahead. Carriers are cathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk

capitalising on the momentum, as JOC reported that liners have filed for GRIs effective +852 2996 4506

15 July (JOC, 2 July). Kevin Li*

Associate

Guangzhou

VLCC retreated sharply as geopolitical risk premium unwinds: As of 1 July, the

VLCC rate dipped 29% w-o-w, largely back to its pre-conflict level while the TD3C