Maersk + HLAG + ZIM: Updating Maersk post pre-release – MTM for rates vs fuel divergence = STRONG 3Q

Research evidence excerpt

Maersk + HLAG + ZIM: Updating Maersk post pre-release – MTM for rates vs fuel divergence = STRONG 3Q

Equity Research

30 June 2026

Maersk + HLAG + ZIM

Updating Maersk post pre-release

– MTM for rates vs fuel divergence

European Transportation= STRONG 3Q

NEUTRAL

We MTM our ests to reflect declining fuel + strong rates. RS Unchanged

reopening also pushed out. Maersk pre-released yday, our European Transportation Marco Limite

Maersk FY26 EBITDA increases to $9.8bn, upper end of +39 (0)2 6372 2582

$8-10bn guidance, but we include largerate normalization in marco.limite@barclays.comBBI, Milan

4Q, leaving more upside. FCF upgraded by only $1.5bn on Helene Iselin

+44 (0)20 7773 7391NWC headwind

helene.iselin@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Maersk – FY26E EBITDA to $9.8bn, flat YoY: We mark to market our estimates for the strong

Andrew Lobbenberg

June freight rates but also declining bunker fuel, and following the pre-release yesterday with

+44 (0)20 3555 0639

guidance upgraded to $8/10bn from $4.5/7bn. No disclosure on 2Q profitability yet.Our andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.com

FY26E EBITDA increases to $9.8bn, at the upper end of the range. In our latest published Barclays, UK

numbers in early June, we increased our forecasts to $8.4bn, but June rates have been very

Emilie Fung

strong whilst fuel price is declining, justifying the further upgrade. Based on our conversations,

+44 (0)20 3555 2335

we think buyside was already expecting FY26 EBITDA moving towards $10bn, FY26 guidance emilie.fung@barclays.com

upgraded by less than EBIT, with FCF guidance improving from >-$3bn to >-$1.5bn due to NWC Barclays, UK

headwinds driven by spot rate and increases. We still see FCF closer to $1bn even expecting

Rahul Singh

c$1.5bn negative NWC in FY26.