European Airports: Strait scenarios — modest EBITDA swings, ADP most geared

Research evidence excerpt

European Airports: Strait scenarios — modest EBITDA swings, ADP most geared

Equity Research

14 May 2026

European Airports

Strait scenarios — modest EBITDA

swings, ADP most geared

Profit scenarios on different timing of SoH reopening imply European Transportation

modest FY26 airport EBITDA swings, but clearer relative risks: NEUTRAL Unchanged

ADP is most geared through Paris retail and external assets European Transportation

Andrew Lobbenbergexposed to the Middle East; AENA less geared and Zurich the

least with stable real estate and landside retail. +44andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.com(0)20 3555 0639

Barclays, UK

European Airports: translating the Strait of Hormuz re-opening scenarios into airport Emilie Fung

earnings. Our base case airline and airport models assume the reopening of the Strait of +44 (0)20 3555 2335

Hormuz in one to two months. We present two scenarios of a faster or slower reopening. A near emilie.fung@barclays.com

immediate reopening would likely lower spot and forward oil prices, ease fuel availability Barclays, UK

concerns and improve consumer / business confidence. A year-end reopening would likely Marco Limite

prolong fuel insecurity, keep spot oil prices elevated and drive the forward curve higher. This +39 (0)2 6372 2582

scenario would likely force airlines to cut capacity where marginal yields do not justify higher marco.limite@barclays.com

marginal fuel costs. For airports, we apply these scenarios though the impact on EBITDA is more BBI, Milan

modest than for airlines: airports are not as directly exposed to fuel costs, and consumer

confidence, but are directly impacted by the related airline capacity decisions and hence traffic

volumes. Consumer confidence and traffic mix also read through to retail spend per passenger.