Groupe ADP (1K) | Hold | Visibility remains constrained

Research evidence excerpt

Groupe ADP (1K) | Hold | Visibility remains constrained

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 10 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldGroupe ADP

France | Airlines & airports MCap: EUR10.8bn

Target Price: EUR120.50 (117.00) Change in TP: 3.0 % Bloomberg: ADP FP Reuters: ADP.PA

Current Price: EUR108.80 Change in Sales: -1.4% 26E/-1.1% 27E Free float 32%

Up/downside: 10.8% Change in Adj EBIT: -9.8% 26E/-5.6% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 23.1

YTD abs performance -2.3% Market data: 09 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -13.8% 26E/-15.5% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 131.80/100.80

Visibility remains constrained Price performance

Why this report?

The current geopolitical situation and persistent regulatory uncertainty

continue to underpin our Hold rating on Groupe ADP. The Iran war and works

in Orly lead us to downgrade our operating forecasts ahead of H1 2026

results, with GMR Airports' recently strong share price performance as a

valuation counterbalance. We expect management to shed light on the

regulatory front in the results statement in the last week of this month, as the

potential Economic Regulation Agreement (ERA 2027-2034) needs to be

subject to a user consultation process after the summer, leaving time for the

ART's binding opinion before the end of this year.

Key findings

Groupe ADP's Paris airports have an above-average exposure to the geopolitical FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

tensions in the Middle East, as despite the region's modest 5% contribution to Sales 6,817 7,103 7,398

their overall traffic, there is an overproportional impact from the conflict on the EBITDA adj. 2,274 2,428 2,570

commercial front due to the much higher spend per passenger (the region EBIT adj. 1,240 1,398 1,511

Net profit adj.