Aeroports de Paris (ADP) ADP revises down FY26 traffic guidance; impact on financial targets to be clarified at HY results

Research evidence excerpt

Aeroports de Paris (ADP) ADP revises down FY26 traffic guidance; impact on financial targets to be clarified at HY results

Elodie Rall AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-5911 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Aeroports de Paris (ADP) (Neutral; Price Target: €115.00)

Investment Thesis

We are N on ADP. We continue to expect an ERA that offers reasonable tariffs and welcome

longer-term visibility, but see those prospects reflected in the share price. Looking to 2026,

we do not expect the shares to outperform, with the prospect of surtax extensions and

increases in the rate of Infrastructure tax looming as 2027 budget negotiations and the

subsequent elections approach. Moreover, the ERA will include plans for increased

investments in Paris, which is likely to weigh on FCF. We also note slowing traffic, and

longer term guidance for traffic to grow at just 1-1.5% a year.

Valuation

Our valuation methodology uses our mixed DCF/SOTP framework, in line with our

methodology for the European airport space. Our SOTP valuation takes our 2027E RAB to

value the aviation division, EV/EBITDA multiples for other core activities in Paris, and the

market value of ADP’s stakes in TAV and GMR. Our key DCF assumptions are a long-term

growth rate of 1.5% and a WACC of 7.2%.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main risks to our PT and recommendation are: Better-or-worse-than-expected traffic

growth; higher-or-lower-than-expected changes to GDP growth; regulatory risks, the

strategies and success of ADP’s airline customers, fluctuation in oil prices, changes in

taxation and environmental constraints, changes in bond yields and financing costs; EU

initiated regulatory changes; geopolitical events (e.g. disease, wars) and terrorism;