2Q26 Results Due After Close on 29th July

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results Due After Close on 29th July

EUROPE | Infrastructure

ADP EquityJulyResearch5, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Results Due After Close on 29th July

ADP is setting 2026 up as a year of two halves, back end loading RATING HOLD

cost savings and traffic recovery, while looking to secure a new ERA by PRICE €115.80^

November. All of this would be well-received; our concern, however, is the PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €121.00 | +4%

uncertainty surrounding these outcomes combined with growing political 52W HIGH-LOW €133.90 - €99.05

risk in France, and a less than compelling FCF outlook with the stock trading FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 33.7% | 14.70

on 4% 2027 dividend yield. We reiterate our Hold, cutting EBITDA ~1% into MARKET CAP €11.4B | $13.1B

H1. PT unch at €121. TICKER ADP FP

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Still cautious on ADP. Regulatory uncertainty persists ahead of a binding ART opinion due

in November. Retail continues to face headwinds from soft consumer demand, and the Intl.

platforms in Turkey and India remain impacted by conflict-related concerns. We expect H1 to FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

be soft, reflecting these headwinds ahead of an easing in H2 and as guided cost savings begin 2026 2027 2026 2027

to ramp up. However, with no obvious earnings upgrades or clearing events until November REV NM NM +1% +1%

(we expect ADP to maintain guidance at H1), we remain cautious. As French political risk builds EPS +11% +4% +11% +5%

into the 2027 budget and presidential election, we see potential for near-term volatility. After a

15% rally from the 2026 lows, we see the risk reward as uncompelling. 2026 (€) 1Half 2Half FY

EPS -- -- 6.93

Expectations for H1. We expect ADP to maintain FY26 EBITDA guidance of >€2,350m (+1.2% PREV 6.24

YoY).