Hapag-Lloyd (1K) | Hold | Adj. fleet growth balances volume growth

Research evidence excerpt

Hapag-Lloyd (1K) | Hold | Adj. fleet growth balances volume growth

#TPchange

Release date: 14 May 2026

Company research

Hold Hapag-Lloyd

Germany | Transport Logistics Beta Profile: MCap: EUR20.7bn

Target Price: EUR131.00 (145.00) Change in TP: -9.7% Bloomberg: HLAG GR Reuters: HLAG.DE

Current Price: EUR117.60 Change in Sales: 10.3% 26E/3.3% 27E Free float 3.6%

Avg. daily volume (EURm) 7.2 Up/downside: 11.4% Change in Adj EBIT: 52.6% 26E/15.2% 27E

YTD abs performance 0.0%

Market data: 13 May 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: NM- 26E/14.0% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 167.00/109.70

Adj. fleet growth balances volume growth Price performance

Why this report?

The Q1 numbers were in line with consensus, hit by lower rates and bad 180

weather in the Atlantic. Amid the Middle East conflict and falling crude and 170 160

refined product volumes, fuel costs have increased materially. HLAG expects 150

this to chiefly be recovered on surcharges, suggesting both higher costs and 140

higher rates in the near term. Fleet growth declines in 2026 and continued 130120

rerouting from the Red Sea via Cape of Good Hope absorbs c. 5.9% ship 110

capacity on longer distances while volumes grow in line with GDP, suggesting 100

May 25 Nov 25 May 26

a small improvement in utilisation and approximately sustained rates in

2026. In 2027, HLAG will likely gain from the accretive acquisition of ZIM, a Price Stoxx Europe 600 (rebased)

peer. We make few changes to estimates, reiterate Hold with TP trimmed

from EUR145 p.s. to EUR131 on increased NIBD.

Key findings FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

▪Q1 EBITDA: EUR422m, -39% QOQ/-60% YOY. EBITDA, Shipping: EUR382m, -42% Sales (m) 17,192 19,952 19,816

QOQ/-62% YOY, rate: USD1,330/TEU, +2% QOQ/-10% YOY, QOQ with the weakest EBITDA adj (m) 2,292 3,233 2,635