Certara Inc: Mixed Q1; stock reaction seems overly punitive

Research evidence excerpt

Certara Inc: Mixed Q1; stock reaction seems overly punitive

Idea

May 12, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCertara Inc | North America Craig Hettenbach

Equity Analyst

Mixed Q1; stock reaction seems Craig.Hettenbach@morganstanley.comJohn Y Park +1 212 761-6435

Research Associate

John.Park@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4029

overly punitive Jialin Jin

What’s Changed Jay.Jin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3913

Erin Wright

Certara Inc (CERT.O) From To Equity Analyst

Price Target $11.00 $10.00 Erin.Wright1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6137

Linda Bolduc

Reaction to earnings Linda.Bolduc@morganstanley.com +1 617 856-8009

Michelle Foley

Unchanged In-line Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

Michelle.Foley@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4056

consensus EPS

Natasha Arya

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Natasha.Arya@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6294

Divergent performance by segment (rebound in software vs.

disappointment in services) highlights an organization in flux as Certara Inc (CERT.O, CERT US)

Healthcare Technology | United States of America

the new CEO makes strategic changes. 2026 guidance is

Stock Rating Equal-weight

weighted toward 2H, keeping CERT a show me story, albeit one Industry View In-Line

Price target $10.00

that looks oversold to us. Shr price, close (May 11, 2026) $5.13

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $812

We view the 19% decline in the stock (vs. Nasdaq flat and Russell 2000 +0.5%) as 52-Week Range $13.88-4.99

an overreaction, although this follows other HCIT prints where stocks were hit hard Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

unless the report was squeaky clean (see – Noisier than a typical quarter at the EPS ($)** (0.01) (0.06) 0.03 0.11

Prior EPS ($)** - 0.03 0.08 0.18