Guidance Resets Post-Divestiture, Though Signs Of Software Reacceleration Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Guidance Resets Post-Divestiture, Though Signs Of Software Reacceleration Ahead

TD Cowen Certara

Global Research May 11, 2026

Accordingly, we are updating our model to better align with updated guidance. Given the

strong Q1 software revs, we model steady q/q growth in software to offset the more muted

growth in continued services revs. Assuming steady growth of the software business, we now

model 10% growth in software by 2027 paired with LSD growth in services in out years. Our new

PT of $9 is 3x our FY27 revenues (now down to $421M to account for the divestiture), though we

expect continued execution against Certara's efficiency initiatives paired with outsized growth

of the software franchise against what should be beatable guidance over the coming quarters

should provide multiple opportunities for upside to current estimates.

Near-Term Reorganization & Growth Strategy To Center Around AI

The integration of AI is at the forefront of Certara's go-forward strategy, and management

reaffirmed the ongoing development of an AI-integrated platform to sit on top of the current

product portfolio. Certara's recently announced collaboration with NVIDIA should unlock

improved computing capabilities as well, which we expect to help power this next frontier

of AI-powered MIDD products and services. The company is also reorganizing the business

around two distinct growth areas: MID3 (core MIDD + discovery offerings) and Accelerated

Clinical Evidence (ACE), which includes products/services that target workflow and productivity

challenges endemic to clinical development.

Management expects new AI unlocks to complement the existing platform and drive the next

generation of version releases, with notable updates in Q1 including: 1) D360 version for peptide