1Q26 Results: New Leadership Making Early Progress on Strategic Realignment

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 Results: New Leadership Making Early Progress on Strategic Realignment

Certara - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

Revenue 385 419 400 399

Adj. EBITDA 122 134 123 125 Valuation

Adj. EPS $0.45 $0.44 $0.39 $0.40 Our $6 target price is ~8x our 2027 EBITDA estimate,

representing a slight discount to its peers. All else equal, Cash Flow Statement 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

we would like to see more evidence Certara is gaining

Cash from Ops. 80 96 88 108 traction with its recently implemented revenue initiatives

Capex 21 27 26 26 before getting more constructive with our rating.

Free Cash Flow 59 70 62 82 Upside Scenario $9.00

Balance Sheet 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E Our $9 upside valuation is based on 11x our upside 2027

EBITDA estimate, which assumes successful cross-selling Cash & Cash Equivalents 179 189 304 383

and favorable macro conditions.

Total Debt 295 293 290 287

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports Downside Scenario $4.00

Our $4 downside valuation is based on 5x our downside

2027 EBITDA estimate, which assumes slower cross-

sales across its platform and continued delays in pharma

decision-making timelines.

in USD

-37% -5% +43%

Downside Target Current Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario

4.00 6.00 6.31 9.00

Key Catalysts

Quarterly earnings releases will be the primary catalysts

with investors particularly focused on new business wins/

bookings, the trajectory of revenue growth and margins.

Beyond this, the stock could also be impacted by change

in the perceived health of its end-market (more/continued

large pharma R&D rationalizations) and biotech funding

updates.

Company Description

Certara is a global leading provider of biosimulation

software (and related services) that helps pharma