National Grid：深度融入增长。恢复覆盖评级为跑赢大盘

研报英文原文证据摘录

15 September 2026

Coverage Resumption

Bartlomiej Kubicki

European Utilities & Clean Energy

National Grid PLC

Rory Graham-Watson

Rating

Outperform (Coverage Suspended OLD)

Jorge Alonso Suils

Price Target

NG/.LN

Specialist Sales

1,310.00 GBp (0.000 OLD)

Gareth Williams

National Grid: Plugged into growth. Resuming coverage at

Outperform.

With this note we resume coverage of National Grid with an Outperform rating and a PT of

1,310p. Inour view, NG offers compelling exposure to attractive regulated business lines at a

valuation which is undemanding in the context of its growth, visibility and resilience.

NG has successfully tilted its portfolio towards electricity and away from gas, and

now contemplates a highly attractive outlook underpinned by a decades-long

decarbonization drive: following a multi-year disposal program since 2015, National Grid’s

portfolio is now c.75% electricity and c.25% gas. This reorientation has favorably positioned

the company to address expected >30% power demand growth in both the UK and the US

over the next decade, contributing to a £70bn investment need over the 5 years to the end of

FY31 and an expected RAB CAGR of ~10%.

Close Date

11 Sep 2026

NG/.LN Close Price (GBp)

1,130.50

Price Target (GBp)

1,310.00

Upside/(Downside)

16%

52-Week Range

1,428.50/1,026.00

EDME

1,577.08

FYE

Mar

Div Yield

4.4%

Market Cap (GBP) (M)

55,999

EV (GBP) (M)

99,957

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

NG’s UK assets provide the company with high visibility, underpinned by an attractive Absolute (%)

(2.4)

(6.7) (18.9)

regulatory framework: As noted in our recent primer, we see the UK as one of the most

EDME (%)

7.2

(3.4)

6.6

attractive regulatory jurisdictions in Europe, offering attractive returns supported by valuable

Relative (%)

(9.7)

(3.3) (25.5)

macroeconomic protections. We expect NG to achieve at least 9-10% nominal ROEs

Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

alongside an overall UK RAV CAGR of ~10%. We also see a significant scarcity value in NG’s

assets in this jurisdiction, which are ~55% of the total.

Price Performance, 1YR

Whilst the US business enjoys lower visibility, it has stable returns and strong cash

…