全球牛肉供应紧张：绘制至2028年的广泛通胀

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Global Insight

August 19, 2026 04:03 AM GMT

Global Proteins

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Ricardo L Alves

Equity Analyst

The Global Beef Squeeze:

Mapping Broad-Based Inflation

Through 2028

Lucas T Mussi

Research Associate

Henrique Morello

Research Associate

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Brian Harbour, CFA

Our Global Beef Model suggests beef inflation of ~12% through

2028, but with diverging trends worldwide: US beef pressure

may ease while accelerating meaningfully in RoW. The global

beef squeeze is not in consensus yet. We discuss sector/stock

implications & beef trade dynamics in details here.

Equity Analyst

Simeon Gutman, CFA

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia Rizzo

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Key Takeaways

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

MS Global Beef Model: Supply down -5% through 2028e, driving prices ~12%

higher. US beef inflation slows to +2%/0%, while RoW spikes +8%/10% in

2027/28e.

Consensus to catch up: In the US, Mexico imports & plant closures may drive

significantly better margins for Packers: MSe US Beef mg ~170bps above the

Street.

The Global Beef Squeeze means countries will have to "battle" for beef, and we

expect a much more dynamic beef trading backdrop ahead.

How to play globally diverging beef/cattle trends: We favor US sectors exposed

to slower/moderate inflation (Proteins, Restaurants, Food Retailers)...

Andrew R Ruben

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

David J Roux

Equity Analyst

Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Melinda K Baxter

Equity Analyst

… While RoW sectors such as Restaurants (LatAm/China/Australia), beef packers

(LatAm/Australia), and Food Retail (LatAm/Australia) will be negatively impacted.

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

Our Global Beef Model points to continued inflation through 2028, but not

evenly across regions: We expect beef prices to slow down in the US, but to

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

accelerate in RoW. Our proprietary models, coupled with USDA data/forecasts,

Tomonobu Tsunoyama

point to global beef production declining ~5% through 2028.…