全球牛肉供应紧张；重申增持JBS，下调BEEF3至中性

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Idea

August 19, 2026 04:09 AM GMT

LatAm Proteins | Latin America

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.

Ricardo L Alves

Equity Analyst

The Global Beef Squeeze;

Reiterate OW JBS, Downgrade

BEEF3 to EW

We are updating our LatAm Protein models on the back of our

findings in our Global Beef note published today. We reiterate

our OW on JBS, stay UW MBRF. We also downgrade BEEF3 to

EW: valuation is undemanding, but we now see many

uncertainties ahead and higher cattle/leverage for longer.

Lucas T Mussi

Research Associate

Henrique Morello

Research Associate

LatAm Food & Beverage

Latin America

Industry View

No Rating

What’s Changed

Minerva SA (BEEF3.SA)

Price Target

From

R$10.00

To

R$4.00

Rating

Overweight

Equal-weight

See our Global Beef Insight published today.

JBS: Reiterate OW on the LT re-rating potential and now improving US Beef

earnings next year. Our re-rating thesis for JBS remains intact. We see the stock

trading at 6.1x EV/EBITDA 2027 (US GAAP), an unwarranted ~20% discount to TSN,

in our view, given JBS's historically superior operational execution and higher

shareholder remuneration. The company has achieved several key milestones since

listing in the US (Russell 1000 inclusion, reporting 10-Qs, etc), but we think there is

more to come, and the valuation gap should gradually narrow, in our view. The

medium-term thesis on the re-rating potential is now backed by potential upward

earnings revisions in the near term by consensus as, following our Global Beef

Squeeze report, we have become more bullish than the Street on US Beef margins

(MSe now ~200bps higher in 2027). This significant operational improvement in the

company's most important division is now another key pillar of our OW on JBS

(recent Indonesia deal adds to the upside). As it pertains to FCF, we model a modest

~3% yield in 2027, but that is significantly impacted by the ongoing expansion

investment cycle. Excluding expansion capex (~US$1bn), we see recurring FCF yield

of ~9% next year. Our PT is based on a target 2027 EV/EBITDA of 7.4x (US GAAP), a

~5% discount to TSN (using consensus estimates), leading to a PT of US$19/shr

…