REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
The Global Beef Squeeze: Mapping Broad-Based Inflation Through 2028
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M
Global Insight
August 19, 2026 04:03 AM GMT
Global Proteins
Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+
Ricardo L Alves
Equity Analyst
The Global Beef Squeeze:
Mapping Broad-Based Inflation
Through 2028
Lucas T Mussi
Research Associate
Henrique Morello
Research Associate
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Brian Harbour, CFA
Our Global Beef Model suggests beef inflation of ~12% through
2028, but with diverging trends worldwide: US beef pressure
may ease while accelerating meaningfully in RoW. The global
beef squeeze is not in consensus yet. We discuss sector/stock
implications & beef trade dynamics in details here.
Equity Analyst
Simeon Gutman, CFA
Equity Analyst
Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+
Julia Rizzo
Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist
Key Takeaways
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
MS Global Beef Model: Supply down -5% through 2028e, driving prices ~12%
higher. US beef inflation slows to +2%/0%, while RoW spikes +8%/10% in
2027/28e.
Consensus to catch up: In the US, Mexico imports & plant closures may drive
significantly better margins for Packers: MSe US Beef mg ~170bps above the
Street.
The Global Beef Squeeze means countries will have to "battle" for beef, and we
expect a much more dynamic beef trading backdrop ahead.
How to play globally diverging beef/cattle trends: We favor US sectors exposed
to slower/moderate inflation (Proteins, Restaurants, Food Retailers)...
Andrew R Ruben
Equity Analyst
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
David J Roux
Equity Analyst
Sarah Simon
Equity Analyst
Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+
Melinda K Baxter
Equity Analyst
… While RoW sectors such as Restaurants (LatAm/China/Australia), beef packers
(LatAm/Australia), and Food Retail (LatAm/Australia) will be negatively impacted.
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Lillian Lou
Equity Analyst
Our Global Beef Model points to continued inflation through 2028, but not
evenly across regions: We expect beef prices to slow down in the US, but to
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+
accelerate in RoW. Our proprietary models, coupled with USDA data/forecasts,
Tomonobu Tsunoyama
point to global beef production declining ~5% through 2028.…
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