美国国债市场每日：6月 TIC 更新

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

17 August 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

June TIC update

Long-end yields rose 4bp, reaching their highest levels since summer 2007

amid a global bear steepening. We think the bear steepening reflects higher

term premium with pressure from rising JGB yields

We maintain 2s/10s steepeners but recognize that the underpinnings of this

position have weakened somewhat, as front-end yields are near the bottom end

of their summer range, while intermediate valuations no longer flag as rich.

However, given renewed bearish pressure on global bond yields, and bearish

technicals, we do not recommend unwinding this trade at current levels

Foreign investors net purchased $6.8bn long-term Treasuries in June, the least

since February. Demand was concentrated in Canada and the Euro Area

The 30-year bond has reached the 5.30% Sep 2024-Oct 2025 .618 swing

objective and shows little to suggest the move is exhausted at this point. The

next meaningful zone surrounds 5.50%

Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS

breakevens

Yields (%)

Curves (bp)

B/E (bp)

Close

1d chg

(bp)

WTD chg

(bp)

QTD chg

(bp)

YTD chg

(bp)

3m avg

3m low

3m high

3m pctl.

4wk

3.65

1.5

2.0

12.9

3.62

3.55

3.71

59%

8wk

3.70

1.5

2.6

15.0

3.66

3.58

3.79

54%

13wk

3.74

0.0

-2.8

15.1

3.7

3.60

3.85

56%

17wk

3.79

0.0

-3.0

20.5

3.77

3.63

3.92

53%

26wk

3.85

0.0

-6.4

28.9

3.84

3.67

4.01

54%

52wk

3.96

0.5

0.9

50.3

3.93

3.76

4.12

55%

2y

4.18

1.0

4.2

71.3

4.16

4.01

4.36

49%

5y

4.38

1.2

18.8

66.6

4.28

4.13

4.46

74%

10y

4.72

2.8

30.2

57.1

4.56

4.37

4.74

94%

30y

5.31

4.5

40.7

48.0

5.07

4.86

5.31

100%

2s/5s

19.5

0.2

14.6

-4.7

12.0

3.5

20.8

93%

5s/10s

34.8

1.5

11.4

-9.5

27.6

22.1

34.8

99%

2s/10s

54.2

1.7

26.0

-14.2

39.6

26.3

54.7

98%

10s/30s

58.7

1.7

10.5

-9.1

51.1

43.9

58.7

100%

5y

226.0

0.4

-1.7

-1.3

234.8

217.1

269.5

17%

10y

228.6

-0.1

4.8

3.8

229.5

218.8

250.3

31%

30y

223.3

-1.2

5.4

1.0

222.2

214.8

232.5

48%

Source: J.P. Morgan