REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
US Treasury Market Daily: June TIC update
Research evidence excerpt
J P M O R G A N
Global Markets Strategy
17 August 2026
US Treasury Market Daily
June TIC update
Long-end yields rose 4bp, reaching their highest levels since summer 2007
amid a global bear steepening. We think the bear steepening reflects higher
term premium with pressure from rising JGB yields
We maintain 2s/10s steepeners but recognize that the underpinnings of this
position have weakened somewhat, as front-end yields are near the bottom end
of their summer range, while intermediate valuations no longer flag as rich.
However, given renewed bearish pressure on global bond yields, and bearish
technicals, we do not recommend unwinding this trade at current levels
Foreign investors net purchased $6.8bn long-term Treasuries in June, the least
since February. Demand was concentrated in Canada and the Euro Area
The 30-year bond has reached the 5.30% Sep 2024-Oct 2025 .618 swing
objective and shows little to suggest the move is exhausted at this point. The
next meaningful zone surrounds 5.50%
Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS
breakevens
Yields (%)
Curves (bp)
B/E (bp)
Close
1d chg
(bp)
WTD chg
(bp)
QTD chg
(bp)
YTD chg
(bp)
3m avg
3m low
3m high
3m pctl.
4wk
3.65
1.5
2.0
12.9
3.62
3.55
3.71
59%
8wk
3.70
1.5
2.6
15.0
3.66
3.58
3.79
54%
13wk
3.74
0.0
-2.8
15.1
3.7
3.60
3.85
56%
17wk
3.79
0.0
-3.0
20.5
3.77
3.63
3.92
53%
26wk
3.85
0.0
-6.4
28.9
3.84
3.67
4.01
54%
52wk
3.96
0.5
0.9
50.3
3.93
3.76
4.12
55%
2y
4.18
1.0
4.2
71.3
4.16
4.01
4.36
49%
5y
4.38
1.2
18.8
66.6
4.28
4.13
4.46
74%
10y
4.72
2.8
30.2
57.1
4.56
4.37
4.74
94%
30y
5.31
4.5
40.7
48.0
5.07
4.86
5.31
100%
2s/5s
19.5
0.2
14.6
-4.7
12.0
3.5
20.8
93%
5s/10s
34.8
1.5
11.4
-9.5
27.6
22.1
34.8
99%
2s/10s
54.2
1.7
26.0
-14.2
39.6
26.3
54.7
98%
10s/30s
58.7
1.7
10.5
-9.1
51.1
43.9
58.7
100%
5y
226.0
0.4
-1.7
-1.3
234.8
217.1
269.5
17%
10y
228.6
-0.1
4.8
3.8
229.5
218.8
250.3
31%
30y
223.3
-1.2
5.4
1.0
222.2
214.8
232.5
48%
Source: J.P. Morgan
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