China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 61): Typhoon disruption, little fiscal catch-up, HPF revision

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Economic Research

19 August 2026

China alt-data trackers chartpack

(Series 61)

Typhoon disruption, little fiscal catch-up, HPF revision

July domestic activity was broadly soft, with typhoon disruptions and limited fiscal

execution pick-up, prompting a 3Q growth downgrade. Fiscal catch-up will be key to

meeting full-year growth target. We have updated our alt-data trackers (vs. our last

update) with key takeaways below.

Exports: Port operations were disrupted again by Typhoon Dolphin in earlyAugust. Month-to-date port tracking points to a moderation in export volume

growth, as departing ships’ deadweight tonnage (excluding tankers) rose

2.9%oya mtd in Aug (vs. 21.3% in July). Full-month growth may be higher

with the post-typhoon rebound and operation normalization.

China's soybean purchases from the US in coming months are key as we head

to the seasonal low period before President Xi’s scheduled US visit.

Oil tanker arrivals were also disrupted by weather effects and recorded

~15%oya contraction mtd in August, compared to ~5% contraction in July and

>35% contraction in June. Latest traffic rebounded.

CCFI to USEC, USWC rose 3.1%, 0.7%, respectively, compared to two weeks

ago; CCFI to the Persian Gulf/Red Sea route rose 10.7%.

Production: Processed crude oil production contraction may have narrowed

mtd in Aug (vs -15.8%oya in July), after a recent oil imports recovery and

petroleum asphalt plants’ operating rates have continued to recover. Auto

production unit may have turned flat (vs -0.1% in July) while steel IP

contraction may have deepened (vs -4.1% in July).

Fiscal: Government bond issuance catch-up remains limited, slowing to 829bn

yuan in August mtd from 1127bn yuan in July. Special LGB issuance picked

up modestly, but general CGB lagged. Fiscal catch-up is key to 2H recovery.

Monetary: PBOC net injected 200bn yuan via outright OMO, while net

withdrew 1372bn yuan via pledged OMO mtd. PBOC has increased overnight

reverse repos, with ~1.4bn yuan of operations during August 14-18.

A softer growth and more benign inflation will increase the likelihood of an

earlier cut (vs.…