Rumo: Positive Catalyst Watch: Cosan Stake Sale in Focus, While El Niño Poses a Risk for 2027

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

19 August 2026

Rumo

Positive Catalyst Watch: Cosan Stake Sale in Focus,

While El Niño Poses a Risk for 2027

Neutral

RAIL3.SA, RAIL3 BZ

Price (18 Aug 26):R$13.26

▼Price Target (Dec-27):R$19.50

Prior (Dec-27):R$20.00

We are updating our estimates for Rumo (RAIL3, N) following 2Q26 results,

maintaining our Neutral rating while placing the stock on J.P. Morgan’s Positive

Catalyst Watch given Cosan’s likely near-term stake sale. While the stock’s

reaction will largely depend on the price paid and the buyer’s profile, we outline

a few potential scenarios below. We believe this event is most likely to serve as a

positive catalyst, as it should be executed at a premium to the current market price,

while also signaling a shift in capital allocation strategy. That said, we maintain our

Neutral rating for the following reasons: (i) El Niño poses a risk to 2027 freight

commercialization against a challenging backdrop for producers, amid elevated

interest rates, higher input costs, and intensifying competition from domestic corn

ethanol production, partially offset by a recent rebound in commodity prices; (ii)

while valuation appears discounted at 5.6x EV/EBITDA 2027e relative to

historical levels of 5–10x, we see limited room for a sustained re-rating given the

business’s increasing vulnerability to cyclical fluctuations; (iii) we await greater

visibility on the long-term capital allocation and commercialization strategy once

a potential change of control is confirmed; and (iv) a relative preference for other

names, including MOTV3 (OW) in Brazil and GAPB (OW) in Mexico. Our

estimates remain largely unchanged, with only marginal revisions, while we are

trimming our December 2027 price target to R$ 19.5, from R$ 20.0 previously.

Cosan Stake Sale: An Anticipated Event… Cosan (CSAN3, N rated by

Lucas Ferreira) has publicly announced its intention to sell a stake in Rumo

(20% stake or 30% if accounting for derivative operations). Initially, Ultrapar

(UGPA3, OW rated by Milene Carvalho) was cited as the primary interested

party; however, discussions have since expanded to include other corporates,

…