巴西银行：资产质量仍是关键变量；BANBRA 5.625% '31s 是我们唯一的增持

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Credit Research

18 August 2026

Banco do Brasil

Neutral

BANBRA

Asset quality remains the swing factor; BANBRA

5.625% ‘31s our sole OW

Once again, the trends observed in 2Q26 differed little from those of prior quarters,

with a resilient top line and contained expenses cushioning the impact of persistent

asset quality challenges. Capitalization, meanwhile, remained comfortably above

minimum requirements, though we continue to flag its quality as a lingering

concern, with MP 1314 still instrumental in preserving a degree of comfort relative

to regulatory minimums. Looking to 2H26, asset quality remains the principal

variable capable of altering the trajectory of results. In this context, we note that,

while BB's 2026 provisioning guidance points to some measure of relief from

current levels, whether those forecasts will ultimately materialize remains

uncertain. Moreover, any misstep that undermines the bank's resilient top line,

including an erosion of the non-recurring margin with the market, could weigh on

performance. Against this backdrop and prevailing valuations, the BANBRA

5.625% '31s remain our sole OW within BB's curve.

Sluggish loan growth continued. In line with 2026 guidance, growth in BB's

expanded loan portfolio decelerated further in 2Q26, posting a meager 0.6%

sequential advance and 4.4%yoy to BRL 1.3 trillion, just below the upper end

of the 0.5–4.5% guidance range. For context, this trails Brazilian private peers

by a wide margin, with Itau expanding 9.6%yoy and Bradesco 12.0%yoy. On

a sequential basis, the corporate portfolio (+2.7%qoq; -4.0%yoy to BRL 404.1

billion) was the only segment to register a respectable gain, though this

followed several quarters of contraction. Relative to 2Q25, consumer lending

(-1.2%qoq; +4.4%yoy to BRL 357.6 billion) led the way, albeit at a subdued

pace. The agribusiness portfolio (+0.8%qoq; +4.1%yoy to BRL 421.6 billion),

meanwhile, decelerated sequentially and continued to expand only modestly.

Unrelenting asset quality deterioration. While the weakening in the

agribusiness NPL ratio proved more contained and the Stage 2 ratio posted a

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