Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT.O): Contracted Revenue Scales to $9.8B; Corsicana Under LOI; TP to $32

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11 Aug 2026 06:21:56 ET │ 18 pages

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT.O)

Contracted Revenue Scales to $9.8B; Corsicana Under LOI; TP to $32

CITI'S TAKE

Riot delivered a

quarter, signing a $9.1B, 20yr data center

lease with a lea

b" (not disclosed) for 191MW of critical IT

capacity at Rockdale, bringing total contracted data center revenue to

$9.8B alongside the AMD lease. Execution is derisked across design,

procurement, financing, and contractor selection, with $573M in interim

financing secured. The full Corsicana campus is now under LOI to a single

tenant, providing line of sight to ~1 GW of leased critical capacity. With

$1.2B in liquidity, no equity issuance, and a capital recycling framework

funding the AI lab buildout largely from AMD debt proceeds, Riot is building

one of the more compelling contracted data center platforms in the sector.

We raise our TP from $28 to $32, reflecting an updated SOTP separately

valuing 241MW contracted, 359MW infrastructure-ready, and 756MW of

Corsicana under LOI at $3M/MW (~80% disc vs contracted).

2Q’26 Recap — Total revenue of $174M came in 4.4% below our $182M estimate but

15.4% above consensus of $151M. The miss to our number was driven by fasterthan-expected wind-down of AMD fit-out activity, partially offset by a 56.7% beat

in engineering revenue at $37M versus our $24M estimate. Operating lease revenue

of $4.9M at an 84% gross margin marked the first full quarter of recurring data

center cash flow following the May AMD delivery. Adj. EBITDA of negative $70M was

worse than our negative $36M estimate, driven by a larger BTC mark-to-market loss

and a $28M non-cash impairment on mining assets repurposed for data center use.

Bitcoin on the balance sheet of 11.4K BTC came in 27% below our estimate as

management accelerated monetization to fund data center equity requirements.

n

Buy / High Risk

Price (10 Aug 26 16:00)

US$19.40

Target price

US$32.00↑

from US$28.00

Expected share price return

64.9%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

64.9%

Market Cap

US$7,280M

Price Performance

(RIC: RIOT.O, BB: RIOT US)

Model Changes — We revise out-years to reflect AI lab lease economics. Our data

…