July UK House Price Growth Indicator: some relief

研报英文原文证据摘录

House Builders

July UK House Price Growth Indicator:

some relief

Industry Overview

First improvement since Iran conflict

03 August 2026

Our BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator (the ‘Indicator) improved for the first time

since the Iran conflict, to -0.8 in July, vs -0.61 pre conflict. The increase is mostly helped

by a better consumer confidence and sales price expectation. UK construction PMI is

holding up as well. However, we believe it is still too early to conclude that the inflection

point (for better) is within horizon. Mortgage rate picked up (again) in recent weeks. See

more details on page 2-3.

Exhibit 1: Our indicator improved slightly to -0.8 in July (vs -0.95 the month prior)

Our indicator has a +0.84 correlation with nationwide UK house price change since May-1997

2.0

1.3

BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator

Nationwide UK House Price Monthly (y/y)

30%

20%

0.5

10%

Equity

EMEA

Home Builders

Allison Sun >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Vivek Vasudeo

Data Science Rsch Analyst

MLI (UK)

Arnaud Lehmann >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

-0.3

0%

-1.0

-10%

-1.8

-20%

May-97

May-98

May-99

May-00

May-01

May-02

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24

May-25

May-26

-2.5

Source: BofA predictive analytics, Bank of England (BoE), Office for National Statistics (ONS), RICS, LSEG Data & Analytics (S&P), Haver

(GfK). See a complete list of components for our Indicator in Exhibit 13 and full methodology on page 6

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

What have we seen from Q2 earnings so far?

Overall update not very impressive. Companies reported so far: Vistry (Underperform):

2H profit weighting looks very high to us, and we believe many market conditions need

to be met in order to hit their FY target. See our report Vistry Group: Cracks or chasms?

and Homes England annual report: grants are flowing but not fast enough. Taylor

Wimpey (Neutral): revising distribution policy to protect balance sheet and lower down

FY volume target slightly. Underlying pricing is also weakening (Revising distribution

policy to preserve balance sheet strength).…