REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
July UK House Price Growth Indicator: some relief
Research evidence excerpt
House Builders
July UK House Price Growth Indicator:
some relief
Industry Overview
First improvement since Iran conflict
03 August 2026
Our BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator (the ‘Indicator) improved for the first time
since the Iran conflict, to -0.8 in July, vs -0.61 pre conflict. The increase is mostly helped
by a better consumer confidence and sales price expectation. UK construction PMI is
holding up as well. However, we believe it is still too early to conclude that the inflection
point (for better) is within horizon. Mortgage rate picked up (again) in recent weeks. See
more details on page 2-3.
Exhibit 1: Our indicator improved slightly to -0.8 in July (vs -0.95 the month prior)
Our indicator has a +0.84 correlation with nationwide UK house price change since May-1997
2.0
1.3
BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator
Nationwide UK House Price Monthly (y/y)
30%
20%
0.5
10%
Equity
EMEA
Home Builders
Allison Sun >>
Research Analyst
MLI (UK)
Vivek Vasudeo
Data Science Rsch Analyst
MLI (UK)
Arnaud Lehmann >>
Research Analyst
MLI (UK)
-0.3
0%
-1.0
-10%
-1.8
-20%
May-97
May-98
May-99
May-00
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
May-24
May-25
May-26
-2.5
Source: BofA predictive analytics, Bank of England (BoE), Office for National Statistics (ONS), RICS, LSEG Data & Analytics (S&P), Haver
(GfK). See a complete list of components for our Indicator in Exhibit 13 and full methodology on page 6
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
What have we seen from Q2 earnings so far?
Overall update not very impressive. Companies reported so far: Vistry (Underperform):
2H profit weighting looks very high to us, and we believe many market conditions need
to be met in order to hit their FY target. See our report Vistry Group: Cracks or chasms?
and Homes England annual report: grants are flowing but not fast enough. Taylor
Wimpey (Neutral): revising distribution policy to protect balance sheet and lower down
FY volume target slightly. Underlying pricing is also weakening (Revising distribution
policy to preserve balance sheet strength).…
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